Executive Summary:
Data centers are increasingly integral to the modern economy, but without prompt action, this industry threatens to strain an over-burdened electrical grid, deplete limited water supplies, raise costs for Texans; harm public health; and overwhelm local governments and utilities. Texas is second only to Virginia in U.S. data center development and is on track to surpass Virginia by the end of the decade. Within Texas, the San Antonio-Austin South-Central Texas region saw a four-fold increase in data center development between 2023 and 2025 and now ranks among the top global markets for expansion. Hyperscale facilities built for AI purposes and cryptocurrency mining facilities are driving this regional growth, and they consume energy and water supplies at a scale that Texas’ regulatory and planning systems were not prepared to absorb.
Data centers already use enough power to supply over half of Texas’ homes and could drive a 70% increase in statewide electricity demand by 2031.
Texas data centers could use roughly 494,091 acre-feet of water by 2030, with impacts expected to be concentrated on the individual communities where the facilities are located.
Because the State Water Plan relies on historical data and surveys, this sudden increase in demand will not be reflected in official planning until at least 2032, worsening an already projected minimum 5 million acre-feet shortfall in water supplies by 2070. Wastewater from data centers may also overwhelm local utilities and could impact downstream water quality. Data centers’ planned reliance on fossil-fuel energy, along with their cooling procedures and general facility operation, could exacerbate other types of pollution and public health impacts in the state. Texas’ data center tax exemptions also cost the state more than $1 billion in 2025 and are projected to cost at least $9 billion in total between 2025 and 2030, not accounting for city and county-level exemptions, even as individual facilities create few permanent, local jobs. No Texas or federal law to date requires facilities to disclose water or energy use, and nondisclosure agreements routinely shield project details from local officials and the public. Local governments and entities lack the appropriate tools to respond to the pressures data centers are putting on local water supplies and utility rates. This paper highlights international and national policies and recommends Texas, its local governments, regional entities, and utilities adopt policies that could serve as guardrails against the adverse impacts of data center development. These include policies to improve data gathering and state and local planning; allocate costs fairly; improve and expand local regulatory tools; limit incompatible land uses; improve transparency; limit detrimental energy and water use; and limit increases in pollution and public health impacts. The paper also recommends data center operators themselves adopt measures to limit potable water use; reduce demand on local water supplies; limit fossil-fuel energy generation and its public health impacts; and demonstrate their investment in being responsible neighbors in their community.
Foreword by Annalisa Peace, Executive Director Greater Edwards Aquifer Alliance:
April 22, 2026– It was in November of 2025 when we decided that GEAA needed to dive into the exploding phenomenon of data centers and their impact on our water supplies. Over the past months, each time we thought we could publish, an avalanche of new information had us diving deeper into the topic. Some aspects of data generation, such as crypto mining, are easy to dismiss as a useless waste of resources that should be prohibited. However, weighing the pros and cons of the infrastructure needed to support Artificial Intelligence (AI) demands a more nuanced approach, as this new technology is both scary and wonderful. While many Americans persistently ignore the threats to our planet from climate change, the outcry about threats from super-intelligent AI may be taken with a grain of salt. In many ways, development of new technologies, both by AI and to serve data centers, may presage progress towards sustainability goals that we all endorse. For example, water utilities are using AI to better detect leaks within their systems and to manage conservation strategies, thus resulting in significant net gains of available water. The industry is creating a demand for longer use storage batteries to support solar options for data centers, and many data centers are considering the use of direct vs alternating current to save energy, which could further spur conversion of our energy system to renewables and lead to greater energy conservation. And, instances of marvels to come abound. For example, AI was used to create a new flexible, high-strength, rust-resistant 3D-printable form of steel. Conversely, GEAA’s 21 county service area, and most of Texas, has been in persistent drought for several years now. We are well aware of the concerns of our constituents about locating this thirsty infrastructure in our region. Our local temperatures are increasing and rainfall is diminishing. It could be that Central Texas cannot sustain the energy and water requirements for data centers and still support the growth we are experiencing. Many communities and rural landowners lament the prospect of big, noisy, polluting boxes dotting their landscapes. And they are taking action: 25 data center projects across the country were canceled in 2025, about four times as many as in 2024. Meanwhile, out of 770 planned data center projects, about 99 are being contested by local activists or residents, with $64 billion in projects being canceled. If the addition of the infrastructure needed to support AI is to proceed smoothly, economic equity, stakeholder engagement, policy priorities, and regulation must all be considered. Meanwhile, it is incumbent on tech firms to acknowledge that their facilities can indeed have outsized impacts on local communities, and take concrete steps to address issues of concern. Although Texas passed some laws regulating AI in the 89th session, they did not take up any related to data centers. Given public outcry, we can expect the 90th legislature is likely to consider some regulation, as other states have done. However, how new state laws might be considered, approved, and enforced given that the Trump administration has issued an order that prohibits states from adopting their own regulations is anyone’s guess. Perhaps I am overly optimistic in believing that Texas can accommodate the digital economy without compromising the reliability and affordability of resources for its residents by requiring transparency, incentivizing efficiency, and prioritizing alternative water supplies. Changes to state law that empower unincorporated areas to address the siting of data centers will also be required. Realistically, AI, and the need for attendant data centers, will not magically vanish. So, we felt it was incumbent on us to come up with recommendations as to how data centers might be designed, built, and regulated. We had fun brainstorming and researching this fascinating topic. I hope that you, the reader, will find some merit in these pages. My gratitude and admiration go out to the author of this report, Rachel Hanes, for her persistence, patience, beautiful writing, and good judgment.
The GEAAA is a 501 (c)(3) nonprofit organization that promotes the effective broad-based advocacy for the protection and preservation of the Edwards Aquifer.