Production outlook optimistic for Texas cotton amid low prices

By Adam Russell
Production expectations are good for Texas cotton, but low prices may stymie positive outcomes for growers.
John Robinson, Ph.D., Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service economist in the Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics, said growing conditions are much better than in recent years due to drought, but prices are low and could decline further.
In 2022, Texas cotton growers experienced widespread crop losses, Robinson said. Two out of three acres planted with cotton were abandoned due to unrelenting drought.
Subsequent years produced below-average results for growers, he said. In 2023 and 2024, winter and springtime rains provided decent planting conditions before arid weather set in. High temperatures and little to no rain led to lower yields in dryland and irrigated fields, while late-season rains delayed harvests in some areas and hurt lint quality.
“Most cotton growers across Texas have taken a punch in the gut the last few years and are looking for that season to make up for it,” he said. “Conditions around the state should provide that kind of optimism, but unfortunately, the other important profit factor – prices – are pretty weak.”
Cotton prices slide
A June 30 report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated national cotton acreage would be 10.1 million acres, down 10% compared to last year. Cotton acres in Texas, the nation’s leading producer, were expected to be down over 4% — 5.7 million acres compared to 5.95 million acres in 2024.
Robinson said low prices, coupled with wet weather and delayed plantings in the Mississippi Delta region, likely factored into the decline. The lower acre estimates did not result in a price boost at market.
Before the report was released, there were some expectations that cotton plantings could be closer to 9 million acres.
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